Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
